e to Real Salt Lake, which also has 43 points. The Rapids lost to Real Salt Lake in their last match for only their second setback sinc

When was the last time a dominant running back led his team to a Super Bowl title? You might have to go all the way back to Terrell Davis and the 1998 Denver Broncos for an example, and that might not be a fair one. Davis was playing alongside of a Hall of Fame quarterback in John Elway, after all. A more modern case such as Marshawn Lynch is misleading, because his 2013 Seahawks were successful thanks mostly to their defense, particularly their pass defense.The Vikings might want to keep that in mind when weighing the $18 million salary Adrian Peterson is due next season. Peterson, who is likely to miss the rest of 2016 with a knee injury and will turn 32 next season, has probably seen his best days as a runner. Its still possible for him to have some productive seasons ahead, but thats not the question for the Vikings. The question is whether he is worth $18 million. All of Petersons pay next season is in base salary and roster bonus, so Minnesota can cut him before 2017 without incurring any cap penalty.It has long been said that the NFL is a passing league, and for good reason. Its not just that passing has become more frequent and successful; it is more decisive in terms of scoring and winning. We know this thanks to Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA). EPA is our best measure of overall scoring productivity, measuring an offenses ability to move the ball, limit turnovers, and even suppress opponents opportunities to score. WPA does the same thing, but also considers game situation factors like score, time, and timeouts remaining.In 2015, the spread among the 32 teams was 2.3 EPA when passing, measured in terms of standard deviation. When running, the spread among the 32 teams was 0.7 EPA, less than a third of the impact of passing. In terms of WPA, the difference was only slightly less stark. The standard deviation among teams for passing was 1.1 WPA, and for running it was 0.4 WPA. In other words, a team should greatly prefer being a top passing team than a top running team by a factor of 3 to 1. Another way to look at this disparity is that being the most dominant running offense in the league would equate to being a modestly above-average passing offense.So in a world where $18 million is more in line with the salary of a second-tier quarterback, is it plausible that any running back would be worth that amount? If any running back would be worth it, it would be Peterson (or Peterson in his prime, at least). His suspension for nearly all of the 2014 season offers a conveniently large natural experiment for testing how much of an impact he made on the Vikings fortunes in recent years.Lets look at the past four full regular seasons (2012-15), and compare how the Vikings offense performed with Peterson on the field compared with off the field. On rushing plays, the Vikings performed measurably better with Peterson. Without him on the field, they averaged minus-0.01 EPA/play. But with him on the field, they averaged 0.02 EPA. Roughly speaking, that difference equates to about half a point per game. Another way to look at it is that the difference of 0.03 EPA/play would make an otherwise average offense into the 13th-best offense. Thats good, just not $18 million good.But Peterson contributed more than just rushing to the Vikings offense. Smart people in football will tell you his mere presence has drawn extra defenders near the line of scrimmage and has helped open up his teams passing. Its a plausible assertion, but how true is it?Comparing Weeks 2 through 17 in 2014 and 2015 can give us an idea of Petersons influence on opposing defenses. Peterson played in Week 1 in 14 before missing the rest of the season, and without him, the Vikings saw an average of 6.7 defenders in the box. But with Peterson in 15, they saw an average of 7.1. And in those same games, the box was considered loaded, meaning there were more potential tacklers than potential blockers, only 17 times without Peterson in 14, but 117 times with Peterson in 15. So it looks like there was an effect, but what was the bottom line in terms of passing productivity?Lets look at the Vikings passing EPA rates with and without Peterson. On all pass plays, with Peterson on the field over the past four regular seasons, Minnesota averaged 0.12 EPA/play. Without him on the field? They averaged, yes, 0.12 EPA/play. A lot of other factors can affect those numbers, such as quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters development in the past two seasons, so lets break it out by year. The difference with and without Peterson on passing plays in the last four full seasons was minus-0.07, minus-0.04, minus-0.01, and 0.08 EPA/play, respectively. So although Peterson draws in the defense, it seems that the effect of an elite running back such as Peterson on the passing game is probably overstated at best, and non-existent at worst.So how can some free agent running backs be so overpaid? A few decades ago, the NFL was truly a running league and great RBs could make a much bigger impact on the game. Theres also the illusion from the fact that running backs happen to be the guys with the ball in their hands and the stats on the back of their trading cards. We all remember the days on the sandlot or on the varsity team where the running back is always the best athlete on the field. But running back has a high replacement level in the NFL in 2016, meaning there are a number of competent players available who arent much of a liability at the position, compared to relatively scarce positions like cornerback or offensive line. Lastly, theres the age-old causation/correlation fallacy in which running backs on winning teams get to pad their yardage totals by sealing wins in the fourth quarter, making them appear to be causing their teams success.Even Peterson in his prime would not be worth close to $18 million. Although such an athlete can be fascinating to watch and can win fantasy games for fans, the modern running game just barely moves the needle when it comes to competing for championships, and Minnesota is Exhibit A.After this season, the Vikings have 19 pending free agents currently earning a total of $34 million in per-year salaries over their contracts, including several starters. That $18 million in savings could go a long way toward shoring up other, more critical positions. Even a severe reduction in salary to half or even a third of what Peterson is due would be a mistake.There is some question whether Minnesota can cut him. Peterson has to be able to pass a physical to be cut, and his contract says his 2017 pay must be exercised before the end of the current season. But assuming the Vikings have a choice, sadly, there should be no choice.Discount NBA Jerseys . The phone hearing is scheduled for 4:30pm et/1:30pm pt. Winchester, who was not penalized for the hit, appeared to make contact with Kellys head early in the first period of Thursdays game in Boston. Cheap NBA Jerseys Authentic . PETERSBURG, Fla. https://www.nbachinajerseys.us/ . The Hall of Fame defenceman told Landsberg that he believes fighting still has a place in todays game, but thinks staged fighting needs be outlawed. Fake NBA Jerseys .com) - The game was all punts and field goals before Kodi Whitfields catch. NBA Jerseys China . The 17-year-old native of Marystown, N.L., pulled out of Skate Canada International last month in Saint John, N.B., with the same problem.Two clubs from opposite sides of the country -- and on opposite sides of the red line in the MLS standings -- square off Saturday in Foxborough, Mass., as the New England Revolution host the Colorado Rapids.The Revolution (6-12-9, 27 points) are winless in their last four matches (0-3-1) and the skid has left them in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, five points behind sixth-place DC United for the final playoff spot in the conference. The blame falls on the offense as the Revolution have been shut four straight times. The scoreless streak is at 362 minutes, the longest in the clubs 21-year history.The Rapids (11-4-10, 43 points) are tied for second in the Western Conference, though they have two games in hand relative to Real Salt Lake, which also has 43 points. The Rapids lost to Real Salt Lake in their last match for only their second setback since April 9..ddddddddddddhe Revolution won the only match between the two squads last season, a 2-0 victory in Colorado -- their first there since 2002. The Rapids havent won at Gillette Stadium since 2010.The biggest difference between the two clubs this year has been defensive. In two more games, New England has scored one more goal (29) than Colorado (28), but the Revolution have allowed more than twice as many goals (47-22).New England will be without two players (Je-Vaughn Watson and Kei Kamara with Jamaica and Sierra Leone, respectively), who are away on international duty. Colorado will be short five players (Tim Howard and Jermaine Jones, United States; Shkelzen Gashi, Albania; Marco Pappa, Guatemala; and Mekeil Williams, Trinidad & Tobago). ' ' '